The midweek session starts with corn futures 1 3/4 to 2 cents lower. Yesterday corn settled 1 to 2 cents lower. The national average corn basis from cmdtyView has remained very firm at 32 to 30 cents under Dec for the last two weeks. cmdtyView raised their national corn production forecast 14.76 mbu to 15.13 bbu. The increase came mostly from KS, which was 11.8 mbu higher to 779 mbu, but without yield changes the higher production came via acreage revisions. The average of analyst estimates is for 2.266 bbu of corn stocks on Sept 1. The Grain Stocks report will be out at noon Eastern.
--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management
Soybeans are 2 to 3 cents lower this morning in the run up to the Grain Stocks report. Soybean futures closed in the red on Tuesday, dropping 3/4 to 3 1/4 cents. There was some net new selling interest, with preliminary open interest rising 11,386 contracts in the lower market. Soy products also closed the Tuesday session lower. The national average soybean basis from cmdtyView was 56 cents under Nov for 9/29. The new crop bean production forecast from cmdtyView was 1.69 mbu lower in their latest update. USDA will release year end soybean stocks as part of the Grain Stocks report this morning. The average of pre-report estimates is for 578 mbu of soybean stocks. Traders are expecting USDA to increase the estimate of last year’s crop, but with offsetting adjustments to residual use.
--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management
Wednesday wheat trading starts with prices 6 to 7 cents higher from the overnight action. There are nagging issues with 2021 wheat production around the world, but world stocks are also quite high and keeping a lid on rallies. Yesterday, wheat futures closed lower with KC the weakest. HRW futures fell back by 6 1/4 to 6 3/4 cents on Turnaround Tuesday. CBT wheat futures came back from midday lows, but still closed fractionally lower. MGE wheat was 2 1/2 to 5 cents lower on the day. The national cash wheat price from cmdtyView has SRW at $5.19/bu for 9/29. That is 0.58% weaker than yesterday, maintaining basis. The average pre-report estimate for Sept 1 US wheat stocks is 2.24 bbu. Hard red winter wheat production is estimated at 693 mbu, SRW @ 276 and white with 226 mbu. The average of trader estimates has 578 mbu of spring wheat production, and 62 mbu for durum. Winter wheat production is expected to be lowered by 2 mbu to 1.196 billion.
--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management
Live cattle futures were up $0.87 to $1.47 on Tuesday. Feeder cattle futures were also up by triple digits, closing $2 to $2.67 higher. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was $142.36 on 9/28, down 25 cents. Cash cattle sales activity for the week has been minimal, but USDA reported a few higher graded cattle sold at $106. FCE’s online cattle auction has 901 head listed so far for tomorrow’s sale. Wholesale boxed beef prices were mixed in the PM update, tightening the Chc/Sel spread to $10.17. Choice boxes were 56 cents lower, and Select boxes were up by 57 cents. Choice rib primals were quoted at $381.45 cwt. and Select was $348.51. Choice loins and briskets were $294.29 and $162.03, with $22.14 and $15.39 premiums over Select respectively. USDA’s estimate for Tuesday’s federally inspected cattle slaughter is 120,000 head. WTD slaughter is 238k, which is down 3k head from last week but 4k head above the same week last year.
--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management
Lean hog futures closed the Tuesday session with triple digit losses. October was down 32 cents, and June ’21 was down 95 cents. The other front months fell back $1.07 to $2.05 on the day. The CME Lean Hog Index was up 89 cents on 9/25 to $75.42. USDA’s National Average Base Hog price was 2 cents lower in the afternoon, at $64.08. CME announced a pork cutout futures contract, which begins trading November 9. The CME Pork Cutout index price was up 60 cents to $90.73 for the 5 days ending 9/28. USDA’s National Pork Carcass Cutout value was $1.64 lower to $91.75. Federally inspected hog slaughter for Tuesday was estimated at 485,000 head. The week’s slaughter is at 974k head which matches last year’s pace.
--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management
Cotton futures are 30 to 34 points higher this morning, countering Tuesday losses. Cotton is just a spectator for today’s USDA reports, which focus on small grains production and grain stocks. Yesterday, cotton trading left front month futures 26 to 40 points lower. There were 20 deliveries against October futures on Monday, but none yesterday. Open interest in October cotton futures was just 70 contracts as of Monday, they expire in a week. The national average cotton cash price from cmdtyView was 61.69 cents/lb for 9/28. USDA’s Daily Spot Quotations report noted 711 bales sold on 9/29 for an average price of 59.68 cents/lb. The Cotlook A index was 71.35 c/lb on Sept 28, that was another 60 points higher. ICE certified cotton stocks were 14,518 bales on 9/28. The AWP for cotton is 50.45 cents/lb, the week’s LDP is 1.55 cents. Both will be updated after the close tomorrow.
--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management